Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Steel 50.6% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.1%
Defensive zone
Steel 60.9%
Neutral zone
Steel 53.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
McDavid
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McDavid
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
52.5% (200)
-4.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
71.4% (7)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
40.0% (45)
+8.9%
On power play, Steel has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
McDavid
Steel
Home
50.0% (412)
49.5% (109)
Away
45.7% (394)
51.7% (143)
By Period
McDavid
Steel
P1
48.0%
49.5%
P2
48.5%
47.5%
P3
47.1%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Sam Steel |