Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Kuraly 51.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 75.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
McDavid
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
52.6% (464)
-4.9%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
100.0% (1)
-50.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
46.5% (155)
+2.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +50.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kuraly
Home
50.0% (412)
55.9% (322)
Away
45.7% (394)
46.0% (298)
By Period
McDavid
Kuraly
P1
48.0%
55.9%
P2
48.5%
46.7%
P3
47.1%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |