Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Crosby 55.1% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 80.9%
Defensive zone
Crosby 59.9%
Neutral zone
Crosby 69.6%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
McDavid
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Crosby
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
McDavid
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.3% (1,025)
-5.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
64.7% (249)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
60.0% (15)
-11.1%
On power play, Crosby has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
McDavid
Crosby
Home
50.0% (412)
56.9% (675)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.1% (614)
By Period
McDavid
Crosby
P1
48.0%
55.1%
P2
48.5%
53.1%
P3
47.1%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |