Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Crosby 55.0% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 80.9%
Defensive zone
Crosby 55.2%
Neutral zone
Crosby 65.5%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
McDavid
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Crosby
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
McDavid
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Crosby
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
53.2% (877)
-6.9%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
63.8% (210)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
64.3% (14)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. McDavid is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (454).
McDavid shoots left. Crosby is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
McDavid
Crosby
Home
49.8% (325)
56.4% (578)
Away
44.6% (316)
54.3% (523)
By Period
McDavid
Crosby
P1
46.2%
57.0%
P2
48.6%
51.4%
P3
47.1%
57.9%
OT
33.3%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Crosby
36.0%▼
52.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |