Connor McDavid vs Tage Thompson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Thompson 42.8% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 68.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 62.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 63.9%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
McDavid
Thompson
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Thompson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
McDavid
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
4
10
McDavid
Thompson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
42.9% (3,540)
+4.8%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
46.9% (373)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
33.6% (265)
+10.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
49.3% (4,582)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
46.5%
44.4%
P2
48.7%
43.7%
P3
48.3%
40.0%
OT
42.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |