Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Larkin 52.2% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 51.9%
Defensive zone
McMichael 58.9%
Neutral zone
McMichael 52.0%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
McMichael
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
McMichael
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
51.1% (915)
-8.2%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
59.4% (261)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
48.2% (168)
-9.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
McMichael
Larkin
Home
43.0% (298)
51.7% (686)
Away
42.6% (270)
53.0% (658)
By Period
McMichael
Larkin
P1
46.6%
52.5%
P2
40.8%
52.7%
P3
41.8%
51.4%
Final 5 min
43.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |