Connor McMichael vs Joe Pavelski
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 38.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 92.4%
Defensive zone
McMichael 87.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 91.1%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
McMichael
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McMichael
Pavelski
Last 5: McMichael 0-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
McMichael
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
McMichael
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,583)
53.6% (8,791)
-10.3%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
58.2% (2,122)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (176)
50.9% (1,138)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McMichael is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (637).
McMichael shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pavelski
Home
42.6% (976)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
43.3% (922)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
McMichael
Pavelski
P1
43.3%
53.5%
P2
43.1%
55.2%
P3
42.1%
53.9%
OT
75.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |