Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 83.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 80.4%
Neutral zone
McMichael 80.1%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
McMichael
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
McMichael
Staal
Last 10: McMichael 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
9
McMichael
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
3
McMichael
Staal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
56.2% (989)
-13.3%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
66.0% (159)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
42.7% (253)
-3.7%
On power play, Staal has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
McMichael
Staal
Home
43.0% (298)
55.4% (699)
Away
42.6% (270)
54.4% (702)
By Period
McMichael
Staal
P1
46.6%
55.7%
P2
40.8%
54.7%
P3
41.8%
53.4%
Final 5 min
43.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |