Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Paul 53.6% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 62.2%
Defensive zone
McMichael 64.4%
Neutral zone
McMichael 64.6%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McMichael
Paul
Last 6: McMichael 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
McMichael
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
McMichael
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
53.7% (354)
-10.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
59.0% (61)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
52.9% (34)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
43.0% (298)
55.1% (216)
Away
42.6% (270)
53.6% (233)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
46.6%
54.9%
P2
40.8%
54.5%
P3
41.8%
54.3%
Final 5 min
43.3%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |