Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Monahan 52.5% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 60.7%
Defensive zone
McMichael 64.8%
Neutral zone
McMichael 62.3%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
McMichael
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
McMichael
Monahan
Last 10: McMichael 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
5
McMichael
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McMichael
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
53.0% (874)
-10.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
54.7% (161)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
47.5% (101)
-8.5%
On even strength, Monahan has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
McMichael
Monahan
Home
43.0% (298)
53.8% (558)
Away
42.6% (270)
51.7% (578)
By Period
McMichael
Monahan
P1
46.6%
49.5%
P2
40.8%
54.8%
P3
41.8%
52.8%
Final 5 min
43.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |