Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Stenlund 53.9% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 92.3%
Defensive zone
Zary 59.8%
Neutral zone
Zary 77.6%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Zary
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zary
Stenlund
Last 6: Zary 1-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Zary
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
3
Zary
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
55.3% (2,738)
-13.5%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
52.6% (116)
-16.4%
On power play, Stenlund has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Zary is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Zary shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Zary
Stenlund
Home
41.3% (293)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
41.0% (212)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
Zary
Stenlund
P1
40.4%
56.2%
P2
38.6%
53.3%
P3
45.2%
53.0%
OT
0.0%
52.9%
Final 5 min
34.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:19 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |