Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Zary wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Thomas 51.6% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zary 86.2%
Defensive zone
Zary 87.8%
Neutral zone
Zary 84.3%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Zary
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Zary
Thomas
Last 10: Zary 2-8 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
4
Zary
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
3
Zary
Thomas
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Zary
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
51.1% (5,387)
-9.3%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
55.8% (927)
-19.6%
On power play, Thomas has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Zary is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Zary shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Zary
Thomas
Home
41.3% (293)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
41.0% (212)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Zary
Thomas
P1
40.4%
50.7%
P2
38.6%
53.0%
P3
45.2%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
59.2%
Final 5 min
34.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 5, 2024 | OT | 01:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |