Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zary on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 45.1% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 66.0%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 80.1%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 62.7%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Zary
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Zary
Karlsson
Last 5: Zary 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Zary
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zary
3
0
Zary
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (114)
58.5% (135)
-15.5%
Power Play
31.6% (19)
80.0% (5)
-48.4%
On power play, Karlsson has a +48.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Zary is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (66).
Zary shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Zary
Karlsson
Home
43.5% (69)
63.7% (91)
Away
39.1% (64)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Zary
Karlsson
P1
46.0%
54.4%
P2
40.0%
66.7%
P3
36.8%
51.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
46.0%▲
41.5%
41.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Neutral | Connor Zary |