Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Conroy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Conroy wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Conroy 52.2% vs Thornton 54.3% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 86.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 55.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 69.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Conroy
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Conroy
Thornton
Last 6: Conroy 4-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Conroy
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Conroy
1
0
Conroy
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Conroy
2
1
Conroy
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Conroy
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (124)
53.5% (6,640)
+1.3%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
57.2% (1,387)
+42.8%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (62)
56.7% (427)
-8.3%
On power play, Conroy has a +42.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Conroy is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (156).
Conroy shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Conroy
Thornton
Home
58.7% (92)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
48.5% (97)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Conroy
Thornton
P1
54.9%
55.0%
P2
54.8%
53.3%
P3
49.1%
54.4%
OT
100.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
56.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Conroy
44.0%▼
53.4%
53.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 00:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |