Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 72.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 88.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Smith
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Smith
Duchene
Last 10: Smith 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
0
Smith
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
8
Smith
Duchene
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
54.0% (10,249)
-13.2%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
56.9% (1,620)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
49.3% (467)
-4.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Home / Away
Smith
Duchene
Home
42.3% (556)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
39.1% (675)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Smith
Duchene
P1
39.0%
54.5%
P2
42.1%
54.5%
P3
40.2%
53.4%
OT
75.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
40.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Craig Smith |