Craig Smith vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs MacKinnon 46.7% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 76.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 78.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 61.7%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Smith
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Smith
MacKinnon
Last 7: Smith 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
0
Smith
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Smith
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Smith
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
46.0% (11,051)
-5.2%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
53.2% (1,394)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
42.9% (499)
+1.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Smith is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Smith shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,578).
Home / Away
Smith
MacKinnon
Home
42.3% (556)
49.6% (6,342)
Away
39.1% (675)
43.9% (6,603)
By Period
Smith
MacKinnon
P1
39.0%
47.4%
P2
42.1%
46.5%
P3
40.2%
45.9%
OT
75.0%
47.7%
Final 5 min
40.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 03:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 02:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Craig Smith |