Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Connolly 47.3% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 90.0%
Defensive zone
Smith 53.1%
Neutral zone
Smith 75.9%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Smith
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Smith
Connolly
Last 7: Smith 1-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Smith
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Smith
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Smith
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
47.4% (1,307)
-6.6%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
50.2% (251)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
41.9% (186)
+2.5%
On power play, Connolly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Smith is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Smith shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Smith
Connolly
Home
42.3% (556)
48.5% (870)
Away
39.1% (675)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Smith
Connolly
P1
39.0%
47.4%
P2
42.1%
47.7%
P3
40.2%
47.0%
OT
75.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
40.8%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |