Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Novak 43.0% (-2.1%)
Offensive zone
Smith 64.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 69.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 50.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Smith
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
41.8% (1,568)
-1.0%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
51.5% (134)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
50.0% (2)
-5.6%
On power play, Novak has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Smith
Novak
Home
42.3% (556)
45.1% (831)
Away
39.1% (675)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Smith
Novak
P1
39.0%
43.7%
P2
42.1%
42.8%
P3
40.2%
41.1%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
40.8%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%