Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 51.1%
Defensive zone
Lazar 93.0%
Neutral zone
Lazar 72.3%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Lazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lazar
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
45.5% (756)
+18.0%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
42.1% (114)
-42.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
44.7% (47)
+11.6%
On power play, Cates has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Lazar
Cates
Home
63.0% (135)
46.2% (468)
Away
59.3% (118)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Lazar
Cates
P1
64.6%
46.0%
P2
60.0%
47.5%
P3
59.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
67.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |