Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 48.8% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 52.9%
Defensive zone
Lazar 89.9%
Neutral zone
Lazar 69.4%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Lazar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Lazar
Aho
Last 10: Lazar 2-8 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
7
Lazar
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Lazar
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (2,623)
50.1% (6,415)
-0.3%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
59.1% (1,297)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (410)
46.0% (446)
-4.3%
On power play, Aho has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lazar is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,244).
Lazar shoots right. Aho is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,013).
Home / Away
Lazar
Aho
Home
50.0% (1,541)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
47.6% (1,557)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Lazar
Aho
P1
48.4%
51.2%
P2
48.8%
52.1%
P3
49.1%
50.8%
OT
56.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
64.0%▲
58.5%
48.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:52 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 1 | 18:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |