Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Crosby 55.1% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 70.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 96.0%
Neutral zone
Lazar 76.3%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Lazar
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Lazar
Crosby
Last 6: Lazar 5-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Lazar
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
53.3% (1,025)
+10.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
64.7% (249)
-64.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
60.0% (15)
-3.7%
On power play, Crosby has a +64.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Lazar
Crosby
Home
63.0% (135)
56.9% (675)
Away
59.3% (118)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Lazar
Crosby
P1
64.6%
55.1%
P2
60.0%
53.1%
P3
59.3%
58.5%
Final 5 min
67.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |