Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Hertl 57.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.7%
Defensive zone
Lazar 81.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Lazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lazar
Hertl
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
Lazar
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
58.5% (845)
+5.0%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
56.2% (281)
-56.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
62.9% (35)
-6.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Lazar
Hertl
Home
63.0% (135)
60.0% (582)
Away
59.3% (118)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Lazar
Hertl
P1
64.6%
52.1%
P2
60.0%
63.6%
P3
59.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
67.2%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |