Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Joshua 50.4% vs Spezza 54.7% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Joshua 69.1%
Defensive zone
Joshua 65.4%
Neutral zone
Joshua 69.4%
Result
Dakota Joshua favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Joshua
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Joshua
Spezza
Last 6: Joshua 2-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Joshua
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Joshua
2
1
Joshua
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Joshua
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (289)
54.4% (7,990)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
56.8% (1,726)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (20)
52.7% (643)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Joshua is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Joshua shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Joshua
Spezza
Home
48.3% (149)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
52.4% (170)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Joshua
Spezza
P1
55.1%
55.7%
P2
44.7%
54.4%
P3
51.7%
54.1%
Final 5 min
45.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Joshua
32.0%▼
47.0%
50.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Dakota Joshua |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Dakota Joshua |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |