Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 47.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorsky 70.7%
Defensive zone
Dvorsky 75.0%
Neutral zone
Dvorsky 71.8%
Result
Dalibor Dvorsky favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Last 8: Dvorsky 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (550)
55.7% (856)
-8.1%
Power Play
42.9% (77)
57.5% (233)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (144)
+0.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Dvorsky shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
Home
47.3% (298)
55.5% (616)
Away
46.8% (331)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Dvorsky
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
58.1%
P2
45.7%
54.9%
P3
47.0%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
48.0%▲
44.5%
47.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Dalibor Dvorsky |