Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 47.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Dvorsky
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorsky
Hertl
Last 5: Dvorsky 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
2
0
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (556)
53.9% (8,303)
-6.2%
Power Play
42.9% (77)
59.2% (1,995)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
46.3% (806)
+3.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorsky is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Dvorsky shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
Hertl
Home
47.2% (303)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
47.0% (332)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Dvorsky
Hertl
P1
48.0%
53.6%
P2
45.7%
54.2%
P3
47.6%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
48.0%▲
44.5%
47.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |