Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Yurov wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Yurov 40.7% vs Marner 42.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Yurov 54.0%
Defensive zone
Yurov 57.1%
Neutral zone
Yurov 57.2%
Result
Danila Yurov favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Yurov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Yurov
Marner
Last 9: Yurov 2-7 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
5
Yurov
Marner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Yurov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Yurov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (628)
41.7% (496)
-1.9%
Power Play
27.8% (18)
55.6% (18)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
35.4% (65)
-10.4%
On power play, Marner has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Yurov is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Yurov shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Yurov
Marner
Home
43.1% (332)
38.0% (321)
Away
35.4% (322)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Yurov
Marner
P1
37.3%
38.7%
P2
38.9%
41.5%
P3
41.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
40.3%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Yurov
44.0%▲
38.5%
39.3%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Danila Yurov |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Danila Yurov |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:56 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |