Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Yurov wins 36.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Yurov 40.5% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Yurov 86.5%
Defensive zone
Yurov 82.4%
Neutral zone
Yurov 84.0%
Result
Danila Yurov favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Yurov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Yurov
MacKinnon
Last 10: Yurov 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Yurov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (708)
49.7% (1,134)
-9.7%
Power Play
24.0% (25)
63.5% (167)
-39.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
33.3% (33)
-11.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +39.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Yurov is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Yurov shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (965).
Home / Away
Yurov
MacKinnon
Home
42.9% (368)
52.7% (674)
Away
35.6% (374)
49.4% (660)
By Period
Yurov
MacKinnon
P1
37.7%
49.6%
P2
38.6%
52.5%
P3
41.6%
50.6%
Final 5 min
41.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Yurov
38.0%▼
40.0%
39.2%
MacKinnon
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |