Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Yurov wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Yurov 40.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Yurov 84.9%
Defensive zone
Yurov 82.1%
Neutral zone
Yurov 81.1%
Result
Danila Yurov favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Yurov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Yurov
MacKinnon
Last 10: Yurov 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Yurov
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Yurov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (628)
49.7% (1,038)
-9.9%
Power Play
27.8% (18)
63.7% (157)
-35.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +35.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Yurov is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Yurov shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Yurov
MacKinnon
Home
43.1% (332)
53.1% (618)
Away
35.4% (322)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Yurov
MacKinnon
P1
37.3%
49.3%
P2
38.9%
53.0%
P3
41.9%
50.7%
Final 5 min
40.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Yurov
44.0%▲
38.5%
39.3%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Danila Yurov |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |