Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Erat 46.8% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Erat leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Erat 75.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 72.0%
Neutral zone
Erat 51.5%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Backes
Erat
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Backes
Erat
Last 10: Backes 5-5 Erat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
0
5
Backes
Erat
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
4
0
Backes
Erat
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Erat
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Erat
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
46.7% (321)
+4.4%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
45.5% (101)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
41.4% (29)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Erat shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Erat is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Backes
Erat
Home
50.6% (3,936)
53.2% (252)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
37.2% (199)
By Period
Backes
Erat
P1
50.1%
43.4%
P2
51.5%
45.8%
P3
50.8%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
16.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 12:45 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 30, 2011 | OT | 03:15 | Neutral | David Backes |