Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 39 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 64-59 in 123 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Backes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
59
(123 meetings)
64
59
Backes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backes 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
24
Backes
O'Reilly
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
21
20
Backes
O'Reilly
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
24
15
Backes
O'Reilly
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
56.2% (15,103)
-5.1%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
58.7% (3,395)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
51.6% (2,769)
-4.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,572).
Home / Away
Backes
O'Reilly
Home
50.6% (3,936)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Backes
O'Reilly
P1
50.1%
55.5%
P2
51.5%
57.0%
P3
50.8%
55.2%
OT
42.9%
62.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | David Backes |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 19:14 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 03:22 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | David Backes |