Scouting Report
Frank Vatrano holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Vatrano shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Vatrano 49.1% (-3.7%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.0%
Defensive zone
Vatrano 57.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Mercer
Vatrano
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Vatrano
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
38.5% (13)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
100.0% (1)
-45.5%
On penalty kill, Vatrano has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vatrano shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Vatrano is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (5).
Home / Away
Mercer
Vatrano
Home
35.2% (145)
40.0% (5)
Away
43.2% (146)
44.4% (9)
By Period
Mercer
Vatrano
P1
32.7%
33.3%
P2
42.7%
66.7%
P3
42.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
75.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Vatrano
44.0%▲
37.5%
42.9%