Dawson Mercer vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (-3.6%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 81.6%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 84.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.5%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Mercer
Gaudreau
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
44.9% (414)
-6.1%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
31.8% (22)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
38.0% (129)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mercer is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Mercer shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gaudreau
Home
35.2% (145)
42.6% (277)
Away
43.2% (146)
43.1% (288)
By Period
Mercer
Gaudreau
P1
32.7%
44.1%
P2
42.7%
44.7%
P3
42.9%
39.5%
Final 5 min
39.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%