Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Hughes 39.5% (+3.0%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 50.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.9%
Neutral zone
Hughes 53.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Mercer
Hughes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
36.7% (305)
+2.1%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
14.3% (7)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
33.3% (6)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hughes
Home
35.2% (145)
35.8% (159)
Away
43.2% (146)
36.5% (159)
By Period
Mercer
Hughes
P1
32.7%
42.3%
P2
42.7%
28.2%
P3
42.9%
37.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%