Dawson Mercer vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Kotkaniemi 49.2% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 82.3%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 80.5%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 74.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 77.6%
22.4%
77.6%
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Last 6: Mercer 4-2 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
49.1% (3,840)
-10.0%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
51.1% (350)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
45.7% (35)
-4.8%
On even strength, Kotkaniemi has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Mercer shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,451).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
Home
40.0% (737)
49.7% (2,194)
Away
38.6% (790)
48.6% (2,031)
By Period
Mercer
Kotkaniemi
P1
38.0%
49.8%
P2
39.3%
50.5%
P3
41.3%
47.2%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |