Dawson Mercer vs Joel Armia

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dawson Mercer holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Armia shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Mercer 41.9% vs Armia 44.1% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone Mercer 54.0%
Defensive zone Mercer 52.7%
Neutral zone Mercer 53.0%
Result Dawson Mercer favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Mercer Armia
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Mercer
Armia
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
36.2% (69)
+2.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
50.0% (2)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
33.3% (6)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +21.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Armia shoots right. Mercer is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Mercer shoots right. Armia is 25.0% vs right-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Mercer
Armia
Home
35.2% (145)
38.5% (26)
Away
43.2% (146)
35.3% (51)
By Period
Mercer
Armia
P1
32.7%
40.0%
P2
42.7%
32.0%
P3
42.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
15.0%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%
36.5%
39.2%
Armia
38.0%
30.0%
36.4%