Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Armia shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Armia 44.1% (+2.8%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 54.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 52.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Mercer
Armia
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Armia
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
36.2% (69)
+2.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
50.0% (2)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
33.3% (6)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Armia shoots right. Mercer is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Mercer shoots right. Armia is 25.0% vs right-shot opponents (20).
Home / Away
Mercer
Armia
Home
35.2% (145)
38.5% (26)
Away
43.2% (146)
35.3% (51)
By Period
Mercer
Armia
P1
32.7%
40.0%
P2
42.7%
32.0%
P3
42.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
15.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Armia
38.0%▲
30.0%
36.4%