Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (39.3% vs 39.7%). Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Barzal 41.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 56.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 53.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Mercer
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Mercer
Barzal
Last 9: Mercer 6-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
5
2
Mercer
Barzal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
40.4% (456)
-1.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
34.2% (38)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
28.6% (7)
+27.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
34.1% (126)
38.0% (242)
Away
43.8% (144)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
31.3%
46.6%
P2
44.0%
35.4%
P3
43.7%
38.0%
Final 5 min
35.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |