Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Greig 51.1% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 89.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Mercer
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Greig
Last 5: Mercer 1-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
4
Mercer
Greig
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
51.9% (347)
-13.1%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
66.7% (24)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
44.8% (87)
+9.7%
On power play, Greig has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Mercer
Greig
Home
35.2% (145)
50.4% (254)
Away
43.2% (146)
52.5% (204)
By Period
Mercer
Greig
P1
32.7%
45.9%
P2
42.7%
60.1%
P3
42.9%
49.2%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |