Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Hartman 45.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 60.8%
Defensive zone
Hartman 57.5%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Mercer
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Mercer
Hartman
Last 10: Mercer 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
7
0
Mercer
Hartman
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
4
Mercer
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
6
Mercer
Hartman
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
45.2% (4,279)
-6.1%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
47.3% (446)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
42.4% (262)
-1.1%
On power play, Hartman has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Mercer is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Mercer shoots right. Hartman is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,391).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hartman
Home
40.1% (756)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
38.5% (792)
43.7% (2,398)
By Period
Mercer
Hartman
P1
38.2%
46.1%
P2
39.2%
42.9%
P3
41.2%
46.7%
OT
0.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
39.6%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |