Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Couturier 53.6% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 81.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 65.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 66.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Mercer
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mercer
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.9% (792)
-15.1%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
62.9% (70)
-27.6%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
51.3% (234)
+3.2%
On power play, Couturier has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Couturier is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Mercer
Couturier
Home
35.2% (145)
51.4% (541)
Away
43.2% (146)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Mercer
Couturier
P1
32.7%
56.0%
P2
42.7%
52.6%
P3
42.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |