Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 44 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 47-41 in 88 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.5%
Defensive zone
Grant 84.4%
Neutral zone
Grant 62.5%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Grant
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
47
(88 meetings)
41
47
Grant
Hertl
Last 10: Grant 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
33
Grant
Hertl
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
21
3
Grant
Hertl
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
11
Grant
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
59.2% (1,995)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
46.3% (806)
-0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Grant shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Grant
Hertl
Home
54.3% (1,956)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Grant
Hertl
P1
51.1%
53.6%
P2
51.5%
54.2%
P3
54.3%
55.3%
OT
35.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:23 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 22, 2022 | OT | 01:39 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 22, 2022 | OT | 00:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |