Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Hayes 47.8% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 81.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 58.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 69.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
MacKenzie
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
MacKenzie
Hayes
Last 10: MacKenzie 4-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
MacKenzie
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
MacKenzie
Hayes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
47.6% (6,698)
+7.3%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
51.7% (702)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
45.4% (696)
+1.3%
On even strength, MacKenzie has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Hayes is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,126).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Hayes
Home
54.0% (2,527)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
47.4% (4,114)
By Period
MacKenzie
Hayes
P1
51.9%
47.5%
P2
53.0%
47.7%
P3
54.0%
47.9%
OT
65.7%
54.1%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 19:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 07:23 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 13:35 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 3 | 16:16 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |