Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 15 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Larkin 52.7% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 32-8 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 59.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 83.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 80.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
8
(40 meetings)
32
8
Ryan
Larkin
Last 10: Ryan 8-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
7
5
Ryan
Larkin
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
15
0
Ryan
Larkin
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
10
3
Ryan
Larkin
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.6% (9,056)
+5.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
58.6% (2,140)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
50.2% (1,124)
-2.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
56.2% (2,559)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
55.1%
52.7%
P2
54.7%
53.1%
P3
56.0%
52.0%
OT
58.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
52.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:50 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |