Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Evans 52.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 86.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 73.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Ryan
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ryan
Evans
Last 7: Ryan 5-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.7% (3,740)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
60.6% (71)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
47.1% (1,228)
+0.7%
On power play, Evans has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Home / Away
Ryan
Evans
Home
56.2% (2,559)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
Ryan
Evans
P1
55.1%
54.0%
P2
54.7%
50.9%
P3
56.0%
52.0%
OT
58.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |