Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Zibanejad 50.0% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 52.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 58.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 56.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Ryan
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Ryan
Zibanejad
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
3
Ryan
Zibanejad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
3
Ryan
Zibanejad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
4
Ryan
Zibanejad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
50.9% (11,756)
+5.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
52.2% (1,852)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
41.6% (1,796)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Zibanejad is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,695).
Home / Away
Ryan
Zibanejad
Home
56.2% (2,559)
51.6% (7,603)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
48.3% (7,802)
By Period
Ryan
Zibanejad
P1
55.1%
50.4%
P2
54.7%
49.7%
P3
56.0%
49.9%
OT
58.3%
48.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |