Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 25 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 27-23 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 62.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 61.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Ryan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
27
(50 meetings)
23
27
Ryan
O'Reilly
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
17
Ryan
O'Reilly
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
13
6
Ryan
O'Reilly
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Ryan
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
56.2% (15,103)
+0.4%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
58.7% (3,395)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
51.6% (2,769)
-3.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,572).
Home / Away
Ryan
O'Reilly
Home
56.2% (2,559)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Ryan
O'Reilly
P1
55.1%
55.5%
P2
54.7%
57.0%
P3
56.0%
55.2%
OT
58.3%
62.7%
Final 5 min
52.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |