Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 25-23 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 63.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 56.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Ryan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
25
(48 meetings)
23
25
Ryan
Hertl
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
17
Ryan
Hertl
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
13
7
Ryan
Hertl
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.9% (8,303)
+2.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
46.3% (806)
+1.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hertl
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Ryan
Hertl
P1
55.1%
53.6%
P2
54.7%
54.2%
P3
56.0%
55.3%
OT
58.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |