Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 65.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 50.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 64.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Ryan
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Ryan
Nosek
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
5
Ryan
Nosek
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
7
0
Ryan
Nosek
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
3
Ryan
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
54.9% (2,710)
+1.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
45.8% (48)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
47.2% (428)
+0.6%
On power play, Ryan has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Ryan
Nosek
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Ryan
Nosek
P1
55.1%
52.2%
P2
54.7%
54.1%
P3
56.0%
54.7%
OT
58.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 04:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 1 | 17:22 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 12:32 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |