Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 27-12 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 85.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 91.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 88.8%
11.2%
88.8%
Stepan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
12
(39 meetings)
27
12
Stepan
Larkin
Last 10: Stepan 8-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
11
4
Stepan
Larkin
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
12
4
Stepan
Larkin
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Stepan
Larkin
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
51.6% (9,056)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
58.6% (2,140)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.2% (1,124)
-6.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Stepan
Larkin
Home
47.6% (6,608)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Stepan
Larkin
P1
47.5%
52.7%
P2
45.6%
53.1%
P3
46.8%
52.0%
OT
40.7%
58.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 10:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 05:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2018 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |