Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Brown 39.6% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 62.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 72.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Stepan
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Brown
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
1
Stepan
Brown
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Brown
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
37.4% (457)
+9.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
39.4% (33)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
25.0% (4)
+19.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Brown is 38.9% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Stepan
Brown
Home
47.6% (6,608)
39.7% (239)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
35.3% (255)
By Period
Stepan
Brown
P1
47.5%
39.8%
P2
45.6%
33.7%
P3
46.8%
38.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Brown
34.0%▼
36.0%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Logan Brown |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Logan Brown |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |