Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Frost 50.6% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 77.9%
Defensive zone
Frost 57.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 70.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Stepan
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stepan
Frost
Last 8: Stepan 6-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Stepan
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
49.7% (3,652)
-3.2%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
55.4% (632)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
55.0% (40)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Home / Away
Stepan
Frost
Home
47.6% (6,608)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Stepan
Frost
P1
47.5%
51.2%
P2
45.6%
51.3%
P3
46.8%
48.8%
OT
40.7%
64.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |