Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 80.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 65.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Stepan
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Stepan
Schmaltz
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
2
Stepan
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
5
Stepan
Schmaltz
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
41.3% (3,431)
+5.2%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
47.3% (655)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.4% (135)
-3.2%
On even strength, Stepan has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,172).
Home / Away
Stepan
Schmaltz
Home
47.6% (6,608)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
Stepan
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
41.3%
P2
45.6%
42.8%
P3
46.8%
43.1%
OT
40.7%
42.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 06:34 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |